MISCALCULATIONS ON CIA INFORMANT

FROM: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/15/AR2010011504068.html

AMMAN, JORDAN -- He was an ambitious young doctor from a large family who had a foreign wife and two children -- details that officers of Jordan's intelligence service viewed as exploitable vulnerabilities, not biography.

Early last year, the General Intelligence Department picked up Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi after his pseudonymous postings on extremist Web sites had become increasingly strident. During three days of questioning, GID officers threatened to have Balawi jailed and end his medical career, and they hinted they could cause problems for his family, according to a former U.S. official and a Jordanian official, both of whom have knowledge of Balawi's detention.

Balawi was told that if he traveled to Pakistan and infiltrated radical groups there, his slate would be wiped clean and his family left alone, said the former U.S. official, whose more detailed account of the GID's handling of Balawi was generally corroborated by the Jordanian official, as well as by two former Jordanian intelligence officers.

Balawi agreed, and as the relationship developed, GID officers began to think that he was indeed willing to work against al-Qaeda.

This belief was the first in a series of miscalculations that culminated Dec. 30 when Balawi stepped out of a car at a CIA facility in Afghanistan, near the border with Pakistan. CIA officers allowed Balawi, who was wearing a vest packed with explosives and metal, to enter the base without a search. Then he detonated his load, killing seven CIA officers and contractors, a Jordanian intelligence officer and a driver.

Jordanian and U.S. officials have since concluded that Balawi was a committed extremist whose beliefs had deep intellectual and religious roots and who had never intended to cooperate with them. In hindsight, they said, the excitement generated by his ability to produce verifiable intelligence should have been tempered by the recognition that his penetration of al-Qaeda's top echelon was too rapid to be true.

Senior CIA and GID officials were so beguiled by the prospect of a strike against al-Qaeda's inner sanctum that they discounted concerns raised by case officers in both services that Balawi might be a fraud, according to the former U.S. official and the Jordanian government official, who has an intelligence background.

The Americans took over the management of Balawi from the Jordanians sometime in the second half of 2009, dictating how and when the informant would meet his handlers, according to current and former U.S. intelligence officers. Agency field officers faced unusual pressures from top CIA and administration officials in Washington keyed up by Balawi's promise to deliver al-Qaeda's deputy leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current and former officers said.

But a U.S. intelligence official, speaking on the customary condition of anonymity, rejected assertions that the CIA had abandoned caution. "No one -- not in Washington, not in the field -- let excitement or anticipation run the show," the official said. The GID's approach was more subtle than simple blackmail, the official added. "Persuasion works better than coercion, and that's something the Jordanians understand completely," the official said. "The caricatures of clumsy, heavy-handed approaches just don't fit."

'A Salafi jihadi since birth'

Balawi, 32, trained as a physician at Istanbul University in Turkey and worked at a clinic in a Palestinian refugee camp in Jordan. He was married to a Turkish journalist, who has written admiringly of al-Qaeda's leader in a book titled "Osama bin Laden: Che Guevara of the East."

In the past four years, using the pseudonym Abu Dujana al-Khorasani, Balawi wrote on extremist Web sites and gained renown. He trumpeted calls for martyrdom.

"My words will drink of my blood," he wrote, one of a number of statements suggesting an ambition to move beyond rhetoric.

"If you read his articles, you understand he is a Salafi jihadi since birth," said Hasan Hanieh, an author and former Islamic radical, referring to a purist strain of Islam known as Salafism. "They go to the core of his beliefs. Over years, I could see this type of person moderate, but such a person does not become an agent. Never."

The Jordanian official with an intelligence background, who has studied Balawi's writings since the attack, reached the same conclusion.

"If you read him in Arabic, there is a texture and a spirit that says he is a true believer," the official said. "I would have tested this man 20 times to believe him once."

After his arrest and interrogation last January, family members said, Balawi appeared sullen and preoccupied. He stopped using the computer -- to which he had seemed so tied.

"He came out a changed person," his father said in an interview. "They should have left him alone. They should not have played with his mind." He said his son would never have moved beyond rhetoric had he not been forced to leave Jordan.

Balawi left Jordan soon after his release, telling his family that he wanted to pursue further medical studies in Pakistan.

He began to produce credible and compelling information about extremists, and the GID turned over the operation's management and the resulting intelligence to the CIA while allowing its officer, Capt. Sharif Ali bin Zeid, to remain as a conduit to Balawi, officials said.

As the information continued to flow, the agency was able to exploit it for operations in Pakistan, officials said. Belief in Balawi grew.

"First, the guy had extremist credentials, including proven access to senior figures," the U.S. intelligence official said. "Second, you had a sound liaison service that believed they'd turned him and that had been working with him since. And third, the asset supplied intelligence that was independently verified. You don't ignore those kinds of things, but you don't trust the guy, either."
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In September, six months after Balawi's arrival in Pakistan, U.S. and international intelligence officials described what they said was their growing success in penetrating al-Qaeda's senior ranks, which allowed improved targeting of insurgent locations in Pakistan.

"Human sources have begun to produce results," said Richard Barrett, head of the United Nations' al-Qaeda and Taliban monitoring group and the former chief of Britain's overseas counterterrorism operations. At the time, a senior Obama administration official with firsthand knowledge of the U.S. operations attributed the killings of more than a dozen senior al-Qaeda officials to the CIA's increasing ability "to locate and identify individuals."

Asked last week whether his reference to greater intelligence penetration included reports from Balawi, the official said he was "not referring to any one individual," but he declined to clarify whether he knew about Balawi's reports. "Maybe. Maybe not," he said.

Balawi appears to have been what in espionage terms is called a "dangle" held out by al-Qaeda.

"This is a very well-thought-out al-Qaeda operation," said a former senior U.S. intelligence officer. "Every dangle operation is a judgment call. It has to be significant enough so that the Jordanians and, in this case, the CIA knows it's real. . . . That's always the key in running a dangle operation: How much do you give to establish bona fides without giving up the family jewels?"

Indeed, tactical successes made possible by Balawi's information appear in retrospect to have been sacrifices by al-Qaeda to get closer to its ultimate target: the CIA.

"They would give up a lot to get at the CIA," said a former Jordanian intelligence officer.

After the attack, the Pakistani Taliban released a video of Balawi accompanied by its leader, but officials suspect al-Qaeda directed the bombing.

Case officers' qualms

Both American and Jordanian case officers raised questions last year about the speed with which Balawi appeared to have inserted himself into a position where he could obtain such intelligence, according to the former U.S. official familiar with Balawi's detention.

Al-Qaeda is deeply suspicious of new volunteers, and especially so of Jordanians because of repeated attempts by GID to penetrate the organization, according to former Jordanian intelligence officials. There are no Jordanians in bin Laden's inner circle, and some who have risen to prominence, such as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the slain leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, were given assignments far from the leadership.

Al-Qaeda security and intelligence officers rigorously vet new arrivals and subject them to a host of tests before they reach "even the third circle around the leadership," as a former Jordanian intelligence official put it.

"Their first instinct is to suspect," this former official said. "They check and double-check his background. They watch him eat and sleep and pray, for signs. They analyze everything. That's how they have survived since 9/11. And after all that, if they believe him, he won't get near the inner circle."

Balawi, however, appeared to have done just that, offering information on Zawahiri. The Jordanian provided "irrefutable proof," including "photograph-type evidence," that he had been in the presence of al-Qaeda's leaders, according to a senior intelligence official. Some Jordanian and U.S. officials now question whether such an encounter ever occurred. But they say that if it did, it was an elaborate piece of staging by Balawi's true handler.

"It was briefed to the White House and to Centcom," a U.S. official said, referring to U.S. Central Command. "This was a high profile. The Bush and Obama White Houses had vowed to kill him [bin Laden]. What a political victory it would be."

The U.S. intelligence official said the case was handled methodically: "This case didn't grow up overnight. None of them do. It developed step by step. And, at some point, especially if you're going to send somebody against one of the toughest targets in the world, you have to meet them face to face."

After several years of internal purges in which senior officers were pushed out, the GID had lost some of its "wisdom and caution," according to a Jordanian government official. A new leadership, installed slightly more than a year ago, relished the prospect of participating in such an extraordinary coup.

"There was desperation to get the fruit," the official said.

A former senior Jordanian intelligence official said he rues any possibility of mistrust between the two intelligence agencies in the wake of the Afghanistan bombing, asserting that the CIA-GID partnership has "saved hundreds of lives, including American lives" over the years.

"This relationship is in the interests of the United States," he said.

Warrick reported from Washington. Staff writers Karen DeYoung and Ellen Nakashima in Washington and special correspondent Ranya Kadri in Amman contributed to this report.

ANATOMY OF A DOUBLE AGENT

FROM: http://www.newsweek.com/id/229997/page/1

How a Jordanian jihadist turned CIA operative—and back again.
By Mark Hosenball, Sami Yousafzai and Adem Demir | NEWSWEEK
Published Jan 9, 2010
From the magazine issue dated Jan 18, 2010

At the CIA training facility in Virginia known as "The Farm," one of the standard courses is called "High Threat Meetings." All aspiring case officers spend the three-week class learning how to arrange a get-together with potentially dangerous informants. When meeting with such agents, "security is everything," recalls one graduate. "I remember being told very forcefully, 'It doesn't matter what you might get from an informant if you wind up dead.' " There are very rigorous protocols for such meetings, says another former agent who once taught the course: all informants should be searched carefully, the rendezvous location should be staked out ahead of time, and when the mole arrives, only one or two CIA officers should be present. "The protocol is for a case officer to meet an informant one-on-one, or maybe two—always, always, always," adds Robert Baer, a former CIA officer who spent years tracking terrorists in the Mideast. "The one thing you never do is meet an informant with a committee."

A committee of at least nine CIA officers and contractors was on hand to meet Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi at CIA Forward Operating Base Chapman in Khost, Afghanistan, on Dec. 30. Why the operatives apparently broke a fundamental rule of CIA tradecraft is unclear. Perhaps they were giddy with anticipation. Balawi had suggested he might be able to deliver something that every CIA officer desperately wants in order to protect the United States and advance their careers: the location of Al Qaeda's second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri. The meeting was considered so important that intelligence officials had informed the White House about it in advance, according to a U.S. counterterrorism officer briefed on the matter. According to two current U.S. intelligence officials, who would not be named discussing sensitive information, security officers were preparing to frisk Balawi after he arrived inside the base. As Balawi stepped from the vehicle, he had a hand in his pocket, according to this account. Someone asked him to remove it, and that's when the bomb exploded, killing five CIA operatives and two contractors, and wounding others.

This has been a season for intelligence fiascoes. Only days before the Balawi bombing, 23-year-old Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab managed to buy an airline ticket to the United States with cash, conceal a bomb in his underwear, and nearly blow up Northwest Flight 253 as it was approaching Detroit on Christmas Day. In that case, many key bits of intelligence were in hand—including a warning by Abdulmutallab's father that his son had come under the influence of extremists in Yemen—but U.S. intel agencies were unable to connect the dots in time. Within the same week, the senior intelligence officer in Afghanistan, Maj. Gen. Michael T. Flynn, coauthored a refreshingly candid and very public report that said, among other things, that the "U.S. intelligence community is only marginally relevant to the overall strategy" in Afghanistan. (Among his views: there's too much emphasis on intel for killing bad guys, and not nearly enough on information to help soldiers understand what's really going on in the society.)

Given all the tens of billions of dollars the United States spends on intelligence activities every year, and the high-profile reforms that were enacted after 9/11, a lot of people—including President Obama—were questioning why we can't do better at spying on enemies and analyzing threats.

The Balawi case raises a further question: how good is Al Qaeda at infiltrating our national-security agencies? That's been a fear in intelligence circles at least since 2003, when two Arabic translators working at Guantánamo were arrested on suspicion of terrorist sympathies. (One linguist pleaded guilty to minor charges of insubordination and mishandling secret information; charges against the other were all dropped.) The following year the CIA convened a special two-day conference to discuss the counterintelligence threat posed by Al Qaeda and other terror groups. The meeting took place at the headquarters of a European spy agency, and included representatives from 10 allied countries. At the time, the very notion that Al Qaeda could be clever enough to plant a mole in a Western spy organization "was a new concept to everybody," says a former security official who helped organize the event. But the meeting ended without an action plan. "This is the sort of thing that [the CIA's spy division, the Directorate of Operations] was always doing," says another former U.S. intelligence officer, who did not want to be named dissing his former colleagues. "They were always holding conferences."

Now, tragically, the CIA has a case study to examine. Exactly how Balawi came to be a double agent is still very murky. But interviews with Balawi’s wife and some of his jihadist colleagues, together with information from U.S. and Jordanian officials familiar with the case, reveal a successful doctor, with Palestinian roots, plagued by anger and guilt over the suffering of his people. It's an all-too-common story these days—of a successful, devout, socially alienated young man who becomes increasingly radicalized as he watches U.S. and other foreign militaries fight and kill in Muslim lands.

Balawi's Turkish wife, Defne Bayrak, says he was always conservative in his Muslim beliefs. The real turning point toward extremism came, she says, with the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. The U.S. occupation "caused a comprehensive transformation in my husband," she says. The following year Balawi started blogging about jihad on radical Web sites. "He was constantly reading and writing," she says. "He was crazy about online forums… He would cite verses from the Quran that talked about the need for jihad, and then write very tough comments based on those verses or on the sayings of the prophet." He yearned to do more, says Bayrak, but didn't see how. Sometime between 2004 and 2009, he attended two dinners sponsored by the mainstream, fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood, but he wasn't impressed. He went to eat "their famous mansaf [rice with meat]," not to hear their ideas, he told his wife. He spoke openly of wanting to visit "places of jihad."

His pro-jihad postings on the Internet—under an alias, Abu Dujanah al-Khurasani—got widespread notice. He even became the Web administrator of al-Hesbah, a Qaeda-linked jihadi forum. This likely attracted the attention of a smart young officer at Jordanian intelligence, a distant cousin of King Abdullah II named Ali bin Zaid. According to a former colleague, bin Zaid had a real talent for ferreting out information about terrorist groups in Internet chat rooms and bulletin boards. But he was not known as a case officer skilled at managing agents face to face. He would become Balawi's handler, and die with him at FOB Chapman.

Balawi didn't make the leap to become a full-fledged jihadist until after he was arrested by Jordanian security agents in January of last year. Just prior to that, Balawi had signed up with a group of doctors to provide aid to Palestinians after the December 2008 Israeli incursion into Gaza. Perhaps that is why he was picked up, or maybe he had long been on Jordan's radar as a potential agent. Bayrak, who shares her husband's radical views, thought at the time that he would be in jail for a very long period. But he was out in three days. According to Bayrak's account to NEWSWEEK, the spies "might have offered him money" to work for them, and perhaps "he pretended to accept these offers just to be able to go" to jihadi-controlled areas of Pakistan. A source close to Bayrak claims that Jordan and the CIA both offered large sums of money. (The CIA would not comment on any alleged offers of money, and Bayrak says she could not confirm any specific amounts.) There also may have been coercion: "They pressured him so much," said Balawi's brother.

Bayrak believes that Balawi was using the Jordanians and the CIA, and never really intended to spy for them. But that isn't at all clear. What is known is that he went to Pakistan, telling his wife that he was studying there, but hinting of something more dangerous—perhaps working as a doctor in jihadi areas. "In all our conversations, he would say, 'God forbid, if something happens to me, what would you do without me?'" Bayrak recalls. She would respond: "God is generous, great; he is the one to provide." While he was away, Balawi's two young daughters would look up at airplanes and say, "Papa came." But he never did. "At the end, this is about belief," says the widow. "In my belief, it was his time for death."

At some point while he was in Pakistan, Balawi began offering his Jordanian handlers information that seemed valuable. "He contacted us by e-mail and said he had critical information on Al Qaeda," a senior Jordanian official told reporters in Amman on condition that he would not be named. "Naturally … we verified the information and shared that information with friendly services, including the U.S." Taliban who met Balawi in the Pakistani tribal areas last year describe him as very cautious. "He was not like other Qaeda operatives in the area," says a Taliban sub-commander who works with suicide bombers. "[He] had smooth, soft skin, unlike the other Arabs whose faces were more sun- and windburned." Balawi seemed important, and often had other Qaeda Arabs around him. But he also appeared extraordinarily nervous about possible drone attacks. "I found him to be one of the most nervous and careful mujahedin," says the Taliban subcommander. "He always said, 'It's not safe to stay here for long, so let's move.' "

Several Taliban militants, none of whom wanted to be named discussing their activities, say they were aware of many cases of infiltrators in their ranks. Some spies had been beheaded; others had been able to escape and hide before they were discovered. It could be that Balawi was discovered as a spy, and turned, or that he simply offered himself up to the other side. That's the version of one Taliban who met Balawi and says he drew suspicion by asking too many questions about bin Laden and his whereabouts. "This is a prohibited question and made him suspect," says this Taliban source, reached by phone in North Waziristan. After staying in the jihadi areas for some months, seeing conditions there and listening to his new colleagues, Balawi seems to have had a change of heart. "After a while, he exposed his plan and said, 'It's up to you guys: behead me or use me as bomber,' " says the Talib.

One of Balawi's last online appearances was in an interview with the online Taliban magazine, Vanguard of the Khurasan, in September. He appeared to hint at an internal, personal struggle over his commitment to jihad. "I was raised to love Jihad and martyrdom in my youth," he said. But at times he "used to wonder" whether he could maintain that commitment. He had come to see that "this love of Jihad is either going to kill you in repentance, should you choose to sit away from Jihad, or it will kill you as a martyr for the cause of Allah…And the human must choose between these two deaths."

Why weren't the CIA officers in the field more cautious in dealing with Balawi, who, after all, they had never met before, and who had a long history of pro-jihadist Web activity before he began cooperating? "The kind of people who can penetrate Al Qaeda are jihadis themselves," says one U.S. intel official. "That's how it works in the real world. The next Mother Teresa won't get in." As for why Balawi was invited onto a CIA base, the official, who would not be named discussing the case, says: "Bear in mind that this was a forward base in a combat zone. You don't exactly have an abundance of safe houses ideal for agent meetings… And you can't exactly do it in an open field, either, especially in hostile territory."

True enough. But that still leaves open the question of why so many CIA operatives were on hand when his vehicle arrived, and why Balawi wasn't searched earlier. Was the CIA depending on its Jordanian friends to handle that? Possibly: in a general sense, American agencies are very dependent on Jordanian and other allied spy agencies when it comes to enlisting and running human agents in the Muslim world. Whoever met with Balawi that day and drove him into the base may have felt the need to show him some confidence. Running spies is all about trust—making a spy feel like a trusted friend, so he'll be comfortable betraying his other friends. It's also worth remembering that Balawi's bombing was touted by Al Qaeda as a revenge attack for all the recent Predator strikes on some of its top people. The suicide attack "was to avenge our good martyrs," said a Qaeda statement. So it's not as if the other side isn't suffering as a result of good CIA intelligence, and action. But the terrorists are learning and adapting, perhaps more than the spooks had anticipated.

With Christopher Dickey in Paris, Michael Isikoff in Washington, and Ranya Kadri in Amman


*** Classic case of underestimating your opponent. MS ***

PROUD OF CIA BOMBER - WIFE OF DOUBLE AGENT

FROM: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/100107/world/afghanistan_unrest_us_jordan_turkey_1

ISTANBUL (AFP) - The Turkish wife of the Jordanian suicide bomber who killed seven CIA agents in Afghanistan expressed pride on Thursday in what he had done.

"I am proud of my husband. He carried out a great operation in this war. I hope Allah will accept his martyrdom, if he has become a martyr," Defne Bayrak told reporters in Istanbul, where she lives.

"I am not ashamed. He did this against the American occupation" of Afghanistan, she said, the Turkish news agency Anatolia reported.

Bayrak's husband, Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi, blew himself up at a US military base near the Pakistani border on December 30 in the deadliest attack against the Central Intelligence Agency since 1983.

Turkish police summoned Bayrak for questioning by the anti-terrorism unit in Istanbul on Thursday evening, Anatolia reported, quoting police, with the interrogation expected to last several hours.

Before police questioning, Bayrak, wearing a black chador, told journalists she did not believe her husband -- a reputed double agent -- had worked for the CIA because "he was an enemy of America".

"It is not likely my husband was a spy because he was an enemy of America... My husband could have only exploited America and Jordan," she was quoted by Anatolia as saying.

The couple married in 2001 in Istanbul, where Balawi had been studying medicine since 1995, and moved to Jordan the following year after Balawi graduated.

Neither had criminal records in Turkey, Anatolia said.

Bayrak, who has been in Istanbul with her two daughters since October, described her husband as a "believer" who was active on jihadist forums on the Internet and "a man who would not even leave the house."

She said she had not seen Balawi since she returned from Pakistan -- where he had gone to pursue medical studies -- in March 2008.

Balawi told his family he was planning to rejoin them in Turkey, she said.

Bayrak, who holds a degree in journalism, has written and translated books and penned articles for Islamist publications.


*** Cop out. You have robbed your daughters of a father. This is not heroism, this is cowardice and shirking responsibilities. MS ***